Egypt: Day 18 – Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge; continuing coverage of the many facets.

Posted on February 12, 2011


Red Alert: Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge

STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE

Red Alert: Mubarak Resigns, Military is in Charge

February 11, 2011

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman delivered the following statement Feb. 11: “In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody.”

Suleiman’s statement is the clearest indication thus far that the military has carried out a coup led by Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. It is not clear whether Suleiman will remain as the civilian head of the army-led government. Egypt is returning to the 1952 model of ruling the state via a council of army officers. The question now is to what extent the military elite will share power with its civilian counterparts.

Read more »

Red Alert: The Egyptian Military’s Options

February 10, 2011

The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak did not do what was expected.

This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices. The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.

The first strategy opens the door to regime change as the crowd, not the military, determines the course of events. The second creates the possibility of the military firing on the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police, which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as not hostile to the public.

That leaves the third option, which is a coup. Mubarak will be leaving office under any circumstances by September. The military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but Mubarak’s decision leaves the military in the position of taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable. That means military action to unseat Mubarak as the remaining choice.

One thing that must be borne in mind is that whatever action is taken must be taken in the next six or seven hours. As dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand back and let events go where they go, or fire on the demonstrators. Indeed, in order to do the latter, troops and armor must move into position now, to possibly overawe the demonstrators.

Thus far, the military has avoided confrontation with the demonstrators as much as possible, and the demonstrators have expressed affection toward the army. To continue that policy, and to deal with Mubarak, the options are removing him from office in the next few hours or possibly losing control of the situation. But if this is the choice taken, it must be taken tonight so that it can be announced before demonstrations get under way Feb. 11 after Friday prayers.

It is of course possible that the crowds, reflecting on Mubarak’s willingness to cede power to Suleiman, may end the crisis, but it does not appear that way at the moment, and therefore the Egyptian military has some choices to make. Read more »

Follow the situation in Egypt. Click here to view our coverage.

Breaking News from Newsmax.com

Mubarak Finally Steps Down; VP Names Military Council to Run Country. For full coverage, Click Here.

Egyptian army: We are in control, emergency law to be lifted when crisis ends

Headlines from FoxNews.com:

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has appeared on state television to say that

President Hosni Mubarak has stepped down. The “Supreme Guide” of the Muslim

http://email.foxnews.com/t?ctl=B61F:CB2F3FC8DC49563D7AF5356CC9518DB4&

Lawmakers fear fallout from Egypt crisis
By John T. Bennett and Sam Youngman @ The HILL
Democrats and Republicans sternly warned the Obama administration on Thursday that it must prevent
the Muslim Brotherhood from taking power in Egypt.

Egypt Army Steps In, Takes Over — Bad for the Muslim Brotherhood

The army didn’t wait for Mubarak to resign. The Muslim Brotherhood fears Egypt’s army staging coup.

If it’s bad for the Muslim Brotherhood, it’s good for humanity…

Top Story: Iran revolution is example to follow, says Egyptian scholar

Iran’s number one news story, make no mistake. There are evil forces at work plotting and planning to make this very thing happen.

Frank Gaffney: Fire Obama’s Intel Chief for Brotherhood Miscue

Feb 10, 2011 11:52 pm | Rick Moran

Why James Clapper Must Resign

The National Intelligence Director reveals a disturbing cluelessness about the Muslim Brotherhood.

FBI Chief: Muslim Brotherhood Supports Terrorism

Steve Emerson

Yesterday, the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, bizarrely claimed the Brotherhood was largely secular. Fortunately the FBI’s Director is more aware of reality…

 Fire him: Panetta’s comment on Mubarak stepping down was based on … media reports

Terrorism: How Much Trouble Are We In?…Quite a Bit

Frank Salvato

A Congressional Intelligence Committee Hearing showed that some figures in the administration are either naïve or criminally ignorant about the global terror threat.

 Bolton: The Notion That You Move From Mubarak to Democracy in Three Easy Steps Far From Reality

Ambassador John Bolton joined Megyn Kelly to talk about the military’s role in the Egyptian government, what’s at stake for America, and ho…

Video link: Bolton: The Notion That You Move From Mubarak to Democracy in Three Easy Steps Far From Reality

  

Clapper Testifies That the Muslim Brotherhood was “Largely Secular”

Video: ‘Largely Secular’: Clapper Says Muslim Brotherhood Is Secular; Hours After Muslim Brotherhood Admits Central Goal Is Sharia Law in Egypt
Clapper’s crass Bro’hood bungle…By Peter Brookes
Report: CIA Chief Leon Panetta Based Congressional Testimony On Mubarak Departure On ‘Media Broadcasts’
Deep U.S.-Saudi rift over Egypt: Abdullah stands by Mubarak, turns to Tehran

Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper testified at a House Intelligence Committee meeting that the Muslim Brotherhood was “largely secular” . This on top of his being unaware, 12 hours after it happened, of a terrorist bombing in London.

What should happen in this case?

Take Poll – Click Here

·         Mr. Clapper should step down and save the American people of further embarrassment
·         Obama should fire him and save his administration from further embarrassment
·         Mr. Clapper should stay right where he is – it is difficult to get intelligence right
·         I don’t know.
·         I don’t care.

 

Diana West: Brotherhood, Muhammad Mahdi Akef, while praising Osama bin Laden, urged 

teaching young people “the principles of jihad so as to create mujahidin who love to die as much as others love to live.”

 

Krauthammer: Egypt at a ‘tipping point,’ predicts ‘explosion’ when the mosques empty
(The Daily Caller)

 

Obama’s 3AM phone call from Egypt
2/11/2011 8:48:00 AM  Steven Den Beste
With the events happening in Egypt, there’s been a lot of criticism of Obama’s handling of the situation, plus intimations that there isn’t any consistent policy involved. Actually, I think there is a consistent policy here, but you
More…

Obamateurism of the Day
2/11/2011 8:05:36 AM  Ed Morrissey
As if Barack Obama hadn’t spent the last week making enough wrong guesses on Egypt, he and his administration managed to outdo themselves yesterday. When work came out that Hosni Mubarak had scheduled an address that evening, Obama tried to
More…

White House statement on Egypt: Blah blah blah blah
2/10/2011 8:46:13 PM  Allahpundit
Does anyone care anymore what they have to say? Even in Egypt? I’m going to quote it for you because it is, in a very technical sense, news, but there’s no mystery why The One is now opting for written statements in lieu of camera time.
More…

CQ ROLL CALL DAILY BRIEFING Today In Washington

Friday, Feb. 11, 2011

THE WHITE HOUSE: Obama will speak about Egypt at 1:30. Mubarak’s resignation was announced this morning and throngs of protesters across Egypt convulsed with euphoria. “In these difficult circumstances that the country is passing through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to leave the position of the presidency,” Vice President Omar Suleiman said. “He has commissioned the armed forces council to direct the issues of the state.” Mubarak left the presidential palace and flew 250 miles to the Sinai resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Robert Gibbs will conduct his final daily press briefing after the president’s remarks. Sunday is his last official day as Obama’s spokesman, a job he’s had since the 2004 Illinois Senate campaign.

Egypt; Fundamentally Transforming The World

Feb 11, 2011 05:28 am | TomT

By Tom Tillison. Having spent the past two years since the 2008 election intimately engaged with the Progressive Left on the battlefield of ideas, I’ve come to a few conclusions. The first being that Progressives assign motive to every action and are incapable of thought beyond their prescribed ideology. When Rahm Emanuel made the now infamous comment during an interview with the Wall Street Journal that “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste”, he was simply espousing…


Leftist Dupes: From the Communist Brotherhood to the Muslim Brotherhood

Feb 10, 2011 11:45 pm | Paul Kengor

Recalling the Left’s support for the most vicious revolutionary monsters of the past 100 years.

What the Muslim Brotherhood Tells The West It Wants Versus What It Really Wants

Feb 10, 2011 05:00 pm | Joseph Klein

The New York Times ran an op-ed column today entitled “What the Muslim Brothers Want.” Its author is Essam El-Errian, a member of the guidance council of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, whom the Times described in a prior article as the council’s “lone ‘reformist.'”

What If They Gave a Revolution and No Regime Fell?

Feb 10, 2011 03:00 pm | Barry Rubin

The time has come to advance a new thesis. Since I was just about the first person anywhere to warn publicly that the Egyptian revolution wasn’t necessarily going to be a bed of roses, let me now suggest a daring idea that seems increasingly possible. I speak here as a political analyst and not as an advocate of any policy or outcome, neither cheering nor booing but merely observing.

Loss of Western Influence – Adam Entous & Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal The defiant tone taken by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak – and widespread confusion about the meaning of his speech – had White House officials stum…

Egypt and American Decline Michael Gerson:
For those who are prone to be prone to such things, recent events in Egypt are further evidence
of declining American global influence.

 February 11, 2011

Clapper’s crass Bro’hood bungle

By Peter Brookes

There’s lots of speculation going on over the fast-breaking events in Egypt — but Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s claim yesterday on Capitol Hill that the Muslim Brotherhood is “largely secular” and has “eschewed violence” doesn’t need to be speculated upon.The Brotherhood has not only described itself as an Islamist group, committed to implementing Sharia law, it spawned Egyptian Islamic Jihad — which offed Anwar Sadat in 1981 and later joined forces with al Qaeda. Another Brotherhood offshoot is Hamas, the terrorist group that holds Gaza in its bloody grip. It’s no fan of the Camp David peace accords with Israel, either.Though Clapper’s office has reportedly “clarified” his remarks, the damage has been done. The DNI’s testimony makes it appear that the US government either doesn’t know the facts on the ground in Egypt or has mistakenly concluded that we shouldn’t be concerned about the Brotherhood being large and in charge of that strategic Mideastern country. Either case is troubling.Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and former deputy assistant secretary of defense.  

February 11, 2011

Report: CIA Chief Leon Panetta Based Congressional Testimony On Mubarak Departure On ‘Media Broadcasts’

CIA Director Leon Panetta testified to Congress today of a “strong likelihood” that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would step down by the end of the day. The report of his impending resignation was only eclipsed by the news that Mubarak would NOT be stepping down as Panetta had indicated to congress. The worse part isn’t that Panetta was basing his statement on on media reports (and not intelligence.) No, National Intelligence Director James Clapper outdid Panetta with his erroneous claim that the Muslim Brotherhood is a “secular” organization.

Certainly the current upheaval unfolding in Egypt is a fluid situation, best described as a leaderless revolt that has put the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA all on their heels. As it turns out, the true diplomatic stars so far in this story has been the media, who’s on the field reports have not only created compelling visuals for cable news outlets around the world, but also, strangely, informed the CIA director in his statements to Congress…

February 11, 2011

Deep U.S. -Saudi rift over Egypt: Abdullah stands by Mubarak, turns to Tehran

The conversation between President Barack Obama and Saudi King Abdullah early Thursday, Feb. 10, was the most acerbic the US president has ever had with an Arab ruler, debkafile’s Middle East sources report. They had a serious falling-out on the Egyptian crisis which so enraged the king that some US and Middle East sources reported he suffered a sudden heart attack. Rumors that he had died rocked the world financial and oil markets that morning and were denied by an adviser to the ruling family. Some Gulf sources say he has had heart attacks in the past. Those sources disclose that the call which Obama put into Abdullah, who is recuperating from back surgery at his palace in Morocco, brought their relations into deep crisis and placed in jeopardythe entire edifice of US Iran and Middle East policies.

The king chastised the president for his treatment of Egypt and its president Hosni Muhbarak calling it a disaster that would generate instability in the region and imperil all the moderate Arab rulers and regimes which had backed the United States until now. Abdullah took Obama to task for ditching America’s most faithful ally in the Arab world and vowed that if the US continues to try and get rid of Mubarak, the Saudi royal family would bend all its resources to undoing Washington’s plans for Egypt and nullifying their consequences…

Egypt: The Quest for Identity

Nancy Hartevelt Kobrin, Ph.D. and Joan Jutta Lachkar, Ph.D.

In the recent street protests in Cairo, many Egyptians feel that they have lost their identity. Will they gain a new democratic identity, or will they revert to Islamism?

Global Muslim Brotherhood Updates

The Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report

Latest developments, including the Global Muslim Brotherhood’s influence in Egyptian protests, and links to a new translation of a seminal Muslim Brotherhood book on Jihad.

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